A study published in the journal Nature Geoscience used a combination of computer models to simulate future climate conditions in the Atlantic ocean basin and its related hurricane activity. One result of the models was a decrease in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms expected in that area through the end of the twenty-first century.
This decrease in hurricane frequency was accompanied by a modest increase in storm intensity and a substantial increase in near-storm rainfall rates.
The study makes no reference to hurricane and cyclone activity outside of the Atlantic basin.
The correlation between rising global temperatures and hurricanes has been one of the most controversial and heated subjects related to climate change and one still open to much discussion within the scientific community. The related questions being whether or not increasing temperatures will lead to more frequent and/or stronger storms. A warming world can work both in favor of and in opposition to hurricane formation and development with warming ocean temperatures leading to potentially stronger storms but impacted wind currents preventing the conditions favorable for hurricane formation.
- Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions – Nature (May 18, 2008)
- Fewer hurricanes as world warms – BBC (May 18, 2008)