Download Summary

Since record keeping began in 1895 the United States has never seen a month so dominated by extreme weather contrasts as May 2011. Based on data from NOAA, during the month of May 19.5% of the country was experiencing severe to extreme dry conditions while 35.2% was experiencing severe to extreme wet conditions. There have been months when the country has been drier and others when the country has been wetter, but there has never been a month in over 100 years with so much of the country at both extremes at the same time.

Dry conditions continued to dominate the southern U.S. with states from Texas to Florida having months ranking in their top ten driest historically. While the percentage of the country experiencing moderate to extreme drought held close to steady from April at 26%, the area under the two most intense categories, extreme and exceptional drought, has increased for fifteen consecutive weeks through May. Texas has now had its driest spring (March-May), 6-month period (December-May), and 8-month period (October-May) in recorded history with over half of the state (51%) classified as experiencing exceptional drought by the end of the month.

The village of Pin Hook, Missouri covered by flood waters from the Birds Point levee breach. Image credit: Steve Zumwalt / FEMA

Under these dry conditions, wildfires continued to rage across the South. During May, 6,625 wildfires burned 1.1 million acres in the country, an historical high for the month over the 12-year record. Over the year-to-date, 3.45 million acres have burned, also a record.

This is in stark contrast to many states in the West and Northeast that experienced May rankings in the top ten wettest in history. Nine states in the Ohio Valley region including Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and West Virginia had their wettest spring on record with storms providing nearly 300% of normal regional precipitation amounts. Combined with snowmelt, this intense precipitation led to record and near-record water levels and flooding on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.

The Mississippi reached record and near-record levels despite multiple control interventions. Image credit: USACE

Along the Mississippi, the Birds Point New-Madrid Floodway, the Bonnet Carre’ Spillway, and the Morganza Spillway were all opened simultaneously for the first time in history to avoid flooding of towns and cities while relieving pressure on control infrastructures. The decision to breach part of the Birds Point New-Madrid Levee released water at a rate eight times that of Niagara Falls, intentionally flooding 130,000 acres of Missouri farmland. Despite these interventions, in Memphis, Tennessee the Mississippi River crested at 47.9 feet, just below its historical record of 48.7 feet from 1937. Overall hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast were flooded in up to 20 feet of water for weeks.

The Missouri River basin also experienced its fourth wettest spring and its third wettest May on record with Wyoming experiencing its greatest spring rainfall in history and eastern Montana receiving May precipitation amounts 300% of normal for the month. Runoff from record and near-record winter and spring snowpack in the Northern Rockies and High Plains contributed to filling all six of the river’s reservoirs forcing their release and leading to breached levees and mandatory evacuations downstream. The flooding is expected to continue through early summer.

To the east, the wettest spring on record for Vermont and increased snowmelt from above average regional temperatures contributed to historical water levels at Lake Champlain, straddling New York, Vermont, and Canada. The lake water rose to a record 102.8 feet at Rouses Point, Vermont, well above the typical 97 feet, and remained near that record level for several weeks. The Richelieu River, the lake’s outlet to the north, experienced a 150-year flood.

An EF-5 tornado devastated Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011. Image credit: Google Earth

The storm systems bringing so much precipitation also generated a preliminary early count of 370 tornadoes during the month. While less than half of the 875 preliminary count from April, the final count will likely still be above the 1981-2010 average of 253 for May, which is typically the most active tornado month of the year. The most devastating tornado tore through Joplin, Missouri on May 22. The EF-5 storm, which packed winds in excess of 200 mph, remained on the ground for about 6 miles, and had a maximum width of 3/4 mile, is being blamed for more than 150 deaths and over 1,000 injuries. This makes it the deadliest U.S. tornado in the modern record since 1950. In the first five months of 2011, there have been 1,482 preliminary tornado reports, already closing in on the yearly record for tornadoes of 1,692 set in 2008 and well ahead of the record pace of 1,011 for the first five months of the year.

The combination of flooding and drought impacted millions of acres of farmland across the country in May. Image credit: USGS

The spring of 2011 will be remembered as one of the worst flooding disasters in U.S. history. Financial impacts from the flooding alone were and will continue to be felt across multiple industries for years including agriculture, fishing, shipping, insurance, refineries, and tourism. NOAA estimates that 3.5 million acres of farmland within the Lower Mississippi River Valley were washed out, and 6.8 million acres were flooded overall. Total insured losses from flood damage currently amount to approximately $2-4 billion dollars.

Massive amounts of fresh water reaching the Gulf of Mexico have also wiped out oyster beds, and fertilizer and other chemicals included in the fresh water are expected to create the largest dead zone ever recorded at the mouth of the Mississippi with disastrous impacts to Gulf fishermen who have struggled to recover from Hurricane Katrina and the BP oil spill in recent years.

From ABC News, the disaster has also generated concern over cash-strapped federal programs like the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with some arguing that taxes are subsidizing continued building in high risk areas. Designed to assist homeowners living in flood plains, the program paid out $709 million in assistance last year and looks to face a much higher bill this year. As reported by USA Today, the timing of the flood damage to cropland also impacts the ability of farmers to receive assistance. The Agriculture Department’s crop-insurance program only covers losses from damaged or destroyed crops which excludes much of the damage since many seeds had not been planted. The department’s program that helps restore damaged and flooded land which is usually funded through emergency legislation has only $30 million available.

Wheat yields are expected to be drastically reduced or non-existent in most parts of Texas because of the 2011 drought. Image credit: Robert Burns / Texas AgriLife Extension Service

Drought conditions have contributed even further to the economic toll. The June 5 report from the USDA found more than 70% of the wheat crops in New Mexico and Oklahoma and over 50% in Kansas to be in poor to very poor condition. Over a quarter of the wheat in Colorado and Arkansas, the corn in Georgia and South Carolina, the soybeans in Louisiana, the cotton in Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia, and the peanuts in Alabama and Georgia were in the same poor condition.

But perhaps heaviest hit has been Texas where over 70% of the wheat and oats and over a third of the corn and cotton were found to be in the same state of near failure. As reported by NOAA, according to the Texas AgriLife Extension Service, it is estimated that from November 2010 through May 2011, Texas ranchers lost $1.2 billion because pastures have not greened across the state. The Texas wheat crop this year has been valued at $274 million dollars, which is less than half of the five-year average. In addition to the pasture land loss, livestock losses will also top $1 billion dollars due to lack of water and feed for cattle.

The total damages from disasters during the spring of 2011 is expected to approach $12 billion dollars. Image credit: NOAA

Insurance companies and aid organizations were feeling the impact. State Farm, the nation’s largest home insurer, has received nearly 300,000 claims in April and May alone and has paid $916 million in storm claims this quarter. The company expects both numbers to rise. Meanwhile Red Cross spent $41 million responding to disasters in the 7-week period prior to May 25 while raising only $33.6 million to cover the costs.

NOAA reported that, according to preliminary numbers from various disaster cost modeling and insurance risk reports, the estimated damage from the spring severe weather outbreaks will approach $12 billion dollars.

Large areas of Europe continued to face lengthy dry condtions through May. Image credit: Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD

During May severe drought, flooding, and wildfires were experienced well beyond the borders of the United States. Driven by hot, dry, and windy conditions and fueled by extensive grass growth in 2010, wildfires have burned more than 1.3 million acres in Mexico since the beginning of the year. Wind-driven fires in Alberta, Canada destroyed over a third of the town of Slave Lake while forcing oil companies to shut off thousands of barrels of output, and the month closed with firefighters in England battling the largest fire in the country’s history as the country’s spring tied with 1990 as the driest since 1910. Large areas of Europe continued to face a long-lasting dry period.

The UPI reported that local Canadian leaders called the seasonal spring thaw and rain flooding in southern Manitoba the worst in about 300 years. As a result provincial authorities intentionally breached a large dike along the Assiniboine River, intentionally flooding 45,000 acres and 150 homes. Meanwhile, rains and flooding in Columbia this spring have been called the worst in the country’s history impacting nearly 3 million people. And in southern Africa, several hundred thousand residents of Namibia were displaced by flooding as the arid region received more rain in a single day (May 5) than it typically receives in a year.

Despite the economic downturn of the past few years the IEA reported that global CO2 emissions in 2010 reached a record level climbing 5.9 percent to 30.6 billion tonnes for the year. However efforts to curb emissions continue to encounter formidable political opposition. Citing inefficiencies in the program, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced that, while he acknowledged ongoing climate change and the human role in it, his state would be pulling out of the ten-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Carbon emissions from Canada's oil sands have grown 300% since 1990 and now account for 6.5% of Canada's overall total. Image credit: Royal Dutch Shell

While retaining the state’s membership in the RGGI, the New Hampshire state Senate voted to change the nature of its participation, limiting money spent to well-established energy efficiency programs run by the utility companies.

Conservative political opposition has increasingly made the subject of climate change an anathema within the U.S. Republican Party. This was evidenced as several 2012 presidential candidates distanced themselves from previous statements and now question the associated science while rejecting potential governmental programs to address it.

Meanwhile the Canadian government was forced to admit that it had failed to include increased emissions from oil sands in its official report to the U.N. according to a story from UPI which also noted that tar sands emissions have grown 300% since 1990 and were responsible for 6.5% of Canada’s overall emissions in 2009. The Montreal Gazette reported that the Canadian government has explored hiring a professional public relations firm to promote its tar sands industry.

Across the Atlantic, as reported by TIME magazine, the UK became the first country in the world to declare a legally binding target for greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020, putting the country on a course to cut carbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050, though the program is not without its caveats. At the same time Bloomberg reported that the UK dropped its CO2 offset quality program due to poor participation. The program sought to ensure that offsets bought voluntarily were canceled or retired to prevent them from being sold again.

In the aftermath of the disaster at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, Germany has decided to shut down its 17 nuclear power facilities. Image credit: Greg Webb / IAEA

In the wake of the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant, Germany announced it would shut down all 17 of its nuclear power plants by 2022. According to analysts in a Reuters report, the move is expected to add up to 40 million tonnes of carbon emissions a year as the country switches to fossil fuels to bridge the gap to potential renewable sources.

The debate over carbon pricing continued in Australia as the federal government announced it would end subsidies for household solar panels a year earlier than promised. Prime Minister Julia Gillard promoted a carbon price as a more efficient means of reducing emissions on a per tonne basis as opposed to separate programs aimed at renewables according to the Sydney Morning Herald. However, based on a poll from Newspoll and The Australian early in the month, public support for a price on carbon stood at only 30% despite 78% of the population believing that climate change is either partly or completely caused by human activity.

A new report from AMAP found that the last six years through 2010 have been the warmest period ever recorded in the Arctic. Image credit: Lars Witting/ARC-PIC.COM

Within the scientific community, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) released its latest report on the condition of the Arctic environment. The report, based on contributions from nearly 200 polar researchers, stated that the last six years through 2010 have been the warmest period ever recorded in the Arctic. It projected global sea level rise from 1900 levels of between 0.9 meters (2ft 11in) and 1.6 meters (5ft 3in) by 2100 with melting from Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet making significant contributions.

A lower but still considerable sea level rise of between 0.5 meters (1ft 8in) and 1.0 meter (3ft 4in) by 2100 was predicted by Will Steffen, the lead author of a new report from Australia’s Climate Commission entitled “The Critical Decade”. Both sea level estimates are higher than those included in the last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. The Australian report stated in its key messages that the evidence of a changing climate is “overwhelming and clear”, that the social, economic and environmental impacts are already visible, and that human activities are triggering these climatic changes “beyond reasonable doubt”.

As arctic ice melts, sea routes will open further at the expense of land access to interior regions. Image credit: Ian Mackenzie

Based on satellite measurements that concur with regional climate models, surface melting on Greenland is unprecedented in the last 50 years and has increased significantly since 1979. The total melt area of the 2000′s is, on average, twice that of the 1980′s. The fastest moving glaciers in both Greenland and Antarctica have increased the speed of their ice loss and are expected to accelerate even further in the decades ahead. The Antarctic Peninsula, which is warming largely due to human factors, has seen significant changes and ice loss from the Larsen C ice shelf due to thinning and fracturing, though collapse of the shelf is not considered imminent. To the north, as ice continues to be lost in the Arctic, trade sea routes will open further but at the expense of losing land access to much of the region’s interior.

As the water from lost ice is added to the oceans, the determination of past sea levels has been complicated by the rebound of land masses since the last interglacial period while changing wind and ocean patterns in the Pacific Ocean may accelerate sea level rise along the west coast of the United States. As rising sea levels threaten coastal ecosystems, new, and perhaps controversial, approaches to conservation of threatened species will need to be discussed according to an analysis that considers changes already underway in the Florida Keys. Also threatened will be global seaports, most of which are woefully unprepared.

Researchers at Stanford University, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research determined that rising temperatures reduced global corn production by 3.8% between 1980 and 2008. Image credit: cammy♥claudia / Flickr

Rising sea levels along with other climatic changes were examined for their impact on current and predicted global crop production. From 1980 to 2008, while impacts on global rice and soybean crops evened out, rising temperatures reduced global production of corn and wheat by 3.8% and 5.5% respectively against estimates without such climate variability despite technological gains and increased fertilization from higher atmospheric CO2. However, with rising sea levels impacting low-lying regions in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar, and Vietnam, rice production could be reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% in the future driving price increases of 7.14% to 12.77%. Meanwhile, the international aid agency Oxfam sees the price of some staples such as corn doubling amid a permanent crisis caused by rising demand, flat crop yields and climate change as demand for food grows by 70% to 90% over the next 20 years. Growers of fruit and nut trees in temperate zones will likely also face future troubles in the absence of adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields.

Beyond the food supply, human health is at risk. As rising temperatures are expected to increase the frequency of heat waves, cities can expect more heat-related deaths with a city like Chicago experiencing between 166 and 2,217 excess deaths per year in the closing decades of this century. And, while not the only factor, climate change is seen as a possible contributor to allergy increases in the United States.

Coral reefs give way to sea grasses near an underwater volcanic vent that has increased the acidity of the seawater. Coral reefs are expected to be severely impacted by acidifying oceans by the end of the century. Image credit: Katharina Fabricius

Rising temperatures are also expected to bring a range of impacts to global ecosystems. Warmer and wetter arctic winters could result in ice-locked pastures restricting access to winter food supplies for herbivores such as reindeer, potentially reducing their population growth. Meanwhile, the warmer and drier conditions associated with drought can either improve growth or increase stress on plant ecosystems depending on their access to water reserves. And, while warmer temperatures are expected to accelerate carbon release from decomposition within forest soils, this is expected to be partially offset as trees absorb more carbon thanks to higher nitrogen levels in those soils.

In the world’s oceans, changing future conditions in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic may impact loggerhead turtle populations with significant reductions in the former region and substantial increases in the latter. Impacts from fishing are also likely to increase the sensitivity of fish populations to a changing climate. As older and larger members are removed, populations become more reliant on younger members that are most susceptible to changing environmental conditions. Fish are also less likely to find refuge as acidifying oceans are expected to severely impact coral reefs by the end of the century based on observations of highly acidified present-day seas near volcanic vents.

Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events, May 2011. Image Credit: NOAA

Quotable

Highlights

• News


• Powerful storms pound several central US states – Yahoo! News
  
• Jindal: Decision on opening spillway could come Saturday – CNN.com
  
• Mud, debris greet Mississippi residents after flooding | Detroit Free Press | freep.com
  
• YouTube – Mississippi River flooding widespread
  
• Gallery: Amid Floods, Dwellers Turn Homes Into Islands | Popular Science
  
• Coast Guard says 15 miles of Mississippi closed | Reuters
  
• Mississippi River Flood Highlights Bailout Costs for Taxpayers – ABC News
  
• Corn-Planting Delays Signal Price Gain as U.S. Farmers Switch to Soybeans – Bloomberg
  
• Mississippi flooding to affect national economy – The Early Show – CBS News
  
• OPINION: After Birds Point: The Army Corps’ Missouri Floodway Boondoggle | Swampland
  
• Joplin, Mo., slammed by twister; 116 dead – CBS News
  
• Rare infection strikes some in Joplin; death toll rises to 151 | Reuters
  
• The Associated Press: Disaster onslaught: Relief groups scramble to cope
  
• State Farm storm claims hit nearly 300,000 – KansasCity.com
  
• Levee breach swamps insurance plan – USATODAY.com
  
• Grimsvotn: Unpronouncable Icelandic Volcano Once Again Causes Travel Delays – TIME NewsFeed
  
• Video: Colombia Heavy Rain And Flooding Damages 60 Cars In Pile Up In Barranquilla | World News | Sky News
  
• Manitoba breach flooding downsized – UPI.com
  
• BBC News – Colombia: Worst flooding in country's history
  
• BBC News – Swinley Forest fire crews step up battle
  
• The other news from Britain: heat and drought | UCAR
  
• BBC News – Wildfires ravage Slave Lake in Alberta, Canada
  
• Drought conditions in Europe 2011
  
• Namibian floods affect 400 000: News24: Africa: News
  
• Busy 2011 Fire Season in Mexico : Natural Hazards
  
• The Canadian Press: As food prices spike again, aid agency warns cost of staples will double in 20 years
  
• Google wind farm investment: Google invests $55 million in Mojave Desert wind farm – latimes.com
  
• Investors Blast 43 Firms for ‘Contradictory’ Climate Stance • Environmental Management & Energy News • Environmental Leader
  
• Chris Christie: Global warming is 'real,' but program is ineffective – Darren Samuelsohn – POLITICO.com
  
• New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie pulls out of greenhouse gas effort – The Washington Post
  
• NH Senate opts to change, not leave, emission plan – BusinessWeek
  
• Texas Files Challenge to EPA "Endangerment Finding" — Environmental Problems and Policies | The Texas Tribune
  
• U.Va. to release climate change papers to interest group | HamptonRoads.com | PilotOnline.com
  
• Climate Change Suit Challenges U.S. Government – NYTimes.com
  
• Boulder County youths sue state over climate change – Boulder Daily Camera
  
• Republicans shift on climate change | StarTribune.com
  
• Do trees cause global warming? – Darren Samuelsohn – POLITICO.com
  
• U.N. clean energy scheme grows, 3,000 projects so far | Reuters
  
• IEA sees record CO2 emissions in 2010 | Reuters
  
• Research Panel Says Climate Change Doubts Slow Urgent Action – Bloomberg
  
• Ailing UN climate talks jolted by record surge in greenhouse gases | Environment | The Guardian
  
• Climate Scientist Fears His "Wedges" Made It Too Easy
  
• Nobel Laureates to World: Let’s Not Consume Ourselves to Death – National Geographic News Watch
  
• Climate Change Tops Agenda At Meteorological Congress – Irish Weather Online
  
• U.K. Drops CO2 Offset Quality Program, Carbon Retirement Says – Bloomberg
  
• Britain Declares Greenhouse Gas Cuts – Ecocentric – TIME.com
  
• Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute to help create frozen repository of sperm and embryonic cells for Great Barrier Reef corals – Smithsonian
  
• Scientists foresee faster sea level rise along New Jersey coast | The Asbury Park Press | APP.com
  
• Feds considered hiring PR firm to polish image of oilsands
  
• Canada climate report hides oil sands data – UPI.com
  
• German nuclear cull to add 40 million tones CO2 per year | Reuters
  
• Japan disaster sways Germany to abandon nuclear power | The Tennessean | tennessean.com
  
• Combet ends solar panel subsidies early
  
• AFP: Australians turning off carbon tax: poll
  
• Storm warning : Nature : Nature Publishing Group
  
• Gas Firms Dispute Methane Contamination Study
  


• Reports


• Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes
  
• Ross Garnaut's carbon cash plan for households | Adelaide Now
  
• Seas could rise up to 1.6 metres by 2100: study | Reuters
  
• Australia Climate Commission – The Critical Decade
  
• Study Raises Doubts on Capturing Carbon Dioxide From Air – NYTimes.com
  
• Mega-fires may be contributing to climate change, UN report finds
  
• Growing a Better Future | Oxfam International
  


• Research


• Climate science critic sees paper retracted due to plagiarism
  
• Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers
  
• Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?
  
• Acceleration and spatial rheology of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
  
• Relative sea-level fall since the last interglacial stage: Are coasts uplifting worldwide?
  
• West Coast Sea Level Changes in the Wind : Discovery News
  
• Sinking ships: conservation options for endemic taxa threatened by sea level rise
  
• Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications
  
• Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
  
• Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects
  
• PLoS ONE: Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting
  
• Predicting small-mammal responses to climatic warming
  
• Fishing impact amplifies the sensitivity of exploited marine populations to climate variability
  
• BBC News – Bubbling sea signals severe coral damage this century
  
• PLoS ONE: Climate Change Affects Winter Chill for Temperate Fruit and Nut Trees
  
• Climate Change Linked to Social Collapses in Greenland Since 800 B.C.: Scientific American
  
• Study: Seaports unready for climate change – UPI.com
  
• Seaports need a plan for weathering climate change, say Stanford researchers
  
• More fatalities predicted from heat waves caused by climate change: study
  
• Allergies getting worse, but why is unclear – TODAY Health – TODAY.com
  
• nsf.gov – National Science Foundation (NSF) News – Global Warming Will Not Significantly Affect Wind Energy Production – US National Science Foundation (NSF)
  
• Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States
  
• Methane Found in Water Near Gas-Drilling Sites, Study Says – TIME
  
• ScienceDirect – Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics : Empirical Mode Decomposition applied to solar irradiance, global temperature, sunspot number, and CO2 concentration data
  
• Evidence that cosmic rays seed clouds – physicsworld.com
  
• Evidence for a weakening of tropical surface wind extremes in response to atmospheric warming
  
• Predicting El Nino, La Nina & Climate Change | Tree Ring Climate Records | Global Warming, ENSO & Drought | Our Amazing Planet
  
• AMS Journals Online – Poleward Shift of Subtropical Jets Inferred from Satellite-observed Lower Stratospheric Temperatures
  
• Recent trends of the tropical hydrological cycle inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology Project and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project data
  
• Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios
  
• Beyond ocean acidification : Nature Geoscience : Nature Publishing Group
  
• Shifts in biogenic carbon flow from particulate to dissolved forms under high carbon dioxide and warm ocean conditions
  

Download Summary

Drought. Wildfires. Wind. Hail. Tornadoes. Flooding.

April 2011 was a month defined by extreme weather conditions, particularly in the United States. Texas followed its driest March in over 100 years with its fifth driest April. Higher temperatures and absent rainfall were blamed for power outages at refineries, a spike in rabies reports, and wheat crop losses. By month’s end, 94% of the state was experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions. The state has received a mere 1.68 inches of rain since February 1, easily besting its driest February-April period in history by nearly an inch. The deepening, months-long drought was accompanied by over 6,000 new wildfires that burned a record 1.79 million acres across the country during April and 2.2 million acres since January in Texas alone. The extreme conditions lead Texas governor Rick Perry to proclaim three days in April as “Days of Prayer for Rain”.

Six states experienced record setting precipitation while record drought continued in Texas. Image credit: NOAA

But it was the tornadoes of April that truly made history. The 30-year-average for April tornadoes nationwide is 135. The monthly record was 542.

The preliminary number of tornadoes reported in April 2011 is 875.

April 2011 easily set a new record for tornado outbreaks. Image credit: NOAA

April 25th through the 28th saw another massive amount of tornadic activity. An estimated 305 tornadoes hit from Texas to New York during the 4-day period, with 190 of them touching down over just 24 hours on the 27th and 28th. The outbreak included three EF-5, 12 EF-4, and 21 EF-3 tornadoes and killed nearly 350 people, mostly in the state of Alabama, making it the deadliest tornado outbreak since 1936. A strong EF-4 tornado packing winds of 190 mph devastated the cities of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. This single cyclone tore a path as much as 1.5 miles wide and was on the ground for more than 80 miles causing an estimated 65 fatalities and over a thousand injuries.

Adelie penguin populations declining in warming Antarctica. Image credit: Peter Prokosch

Meanwhile, half way around the world, Thailand experienced massive flooding that impacted nearly a million people. In what is normally the dry season, some areas received more than 50 inches of rain bringing mudslides and widespread damage to crops.

Observational research from the scientific community continued to explore the ongoing reaction of natural environments and processes to changing conditions. Under a warming climate, Antarctica is becoming greener as grasses are finding better conditions under which to take root while warming waters and declining krill populations are resulting in declining penguin populations. An analysis of glaciers in the southern half of South America finds them melting at the fastest pace in the last 350 years. And earlier spring blooms are impacting the timing of ecological cycles while changes in rainfall patterns are influencing the migratory habits of some bird species.

USFS: Heavily deforested coastal mangroves are immense carbon stores. Image credit: Theo Allofs/Corbis

In the political arena, carbon pricing remained a contentious subject in Australia while the U.S. Supreme Court signaled a likely rejection of a lawsuit brought by six states attempting to limit greenhouse gas emissions by a myriad of power companies around the nation. The court indicated a preference for such regulations to be handed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), an organization facing its own challenges.

South American glaciers melting at fastest rate in 350 years. Image credit: Neil Glasser

Meanwhile a study focusing on methane releases from hydraulic fracturing, an increasingly controversial process used in the drilling extraction of natural gas, found that such releases may contribute as much or more than coal to global warming. Natural gas has been gaining widespread favor amongst politicians in both parties in the U.S. considering its large natural stores in the country, relatively easy access, minimal regulation, and lower costs particularly when compared against rising oil prices.

Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events, April 2011. Image Credit: NOAA

Quotable

Highlights

• News
  • CNN: Fires tear across Texas
  • Twister outbreak is 2nd deadliest in US history
  • Tornadoes Blast Property Insurers
  • Thailand Flooding Impacts Nearly One Million
  • Cracked reactor leaking radioactive water
  • Scientists: Arctic ozone depletion ‘unprecedented’
  • Sea rising ‘at upper end of forecast’
  • Rising seas scariest climate impact: Nauru’s Moses
  • New York set to be big loser as sea levels rise
  • Climate change to mean fewer cyclones and smaller waves, says CSIRO research
  • Plant Strife: Satellite measurements show declining phytoplankton in ocean currents
  • amednews: Editorial – Confronting health issues of climate change
  • Risk of Malaria, Other Diseases May Rise With Global Temperatures as Climate Changes
  • CSIRO boss backs carbon price
  • House votes to kill EPA climate regulations
  • Senate rejects efforts to block EPA climate regulations
  • GOP Wins Deep Cuts in Environment Spending
  • U.S. Supreme Court Signals Rejection of State Climate-Emissions Lawsuits
  • No binding climate deal at Durban, warn US, EU
  • Expert warns of reef climate change deadline
  • U.S., China Energy Use Predicted to Flatten in Coming Decades
  • Multitude of Species Face Climate Threat
  • Climate ‘technical fix’ may yield warming, not cooling
• Reports
  • UNFCCC – Climate Change Conference Bangkok, April 2011
  • National Science Foundation – Climate Change Poses Major Risks for Unprepared Cities
  • Pontifical Academy of Sciences – Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene
  • American Security Project – Pay Now, Pay Later
• Research
  • Smithsonian scientists find declining rainfall is a major influence for migrating birds
  • Duke Study Finds Trees More Sensitive to Climate Change
  • Antarctica Growing Green With Grass
  • Glaciers in Chile ‘melt at fastest rate in 350 years’
  • Two of Earth’s Ocean Carbon Sinks Shrinking, Studies Show
  • Mangroves Among the Most Carbon-Rich Forests in the Tropics
  • Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau
  • Arctic fresh water could affect Europe’s climate
  • Plants’ earlier bloom times hurting some creatures
  • Study: Gas from ‘fracking’ worse than coal on climate
  • West Antarctic warming triggered by warmer sea surface in tropical Pacific
  • Fewer penguins survive warming Antarctic climate
  • National microalgae biofuel production potential and resource demand
  • PLoS ONE: Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy
  • The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering
  • The effects of boreal forest expansion on the summer Arctic frontal zone
  • Changes in satellite-derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006
  • Climate change threatens European conservation areas
  • Rings Reveal Extensive Yearly Climate Record
  • Could a Leaking Ocean Current Keep Europe Toasty?

In Brief

Download Summary

This month also saw the release of a report from the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) in response to a request from the U.S. Navy. Based on the measured and projected impacts of climate change, the report advised that “U.S. naval forces should begin now to strengthen capabilities in the Arctic, prepare for more frequent humanitarian missions, and analyze potential vulnerabilities of seaside bases and facilities”. Two separate reports from the United Nations examined the relationship between urbanization and future climate change and the long-term impacts of changing climates on global food production. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) noted that while occupying just 2% of global land mass, cities are responsible for up to 70% of industrial greenhouse gas emissions. As urbanization continues to increase, cities also present the greatest opportunity for remediation of these emissions. Meanwhile the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) warned of potentially catastrophic long-term impacts of climate change of food security. Alexander Müller, FAO Assistant-Director General for Natural Resources, stated that, “‘slow-onset’ impacts are expected to bring deeper changes that challenge the ecosystem services needed for agriculture, with potentially disastrous impacts on food security during the period from 2050 to 2100,” and encouraged developing increased resiliency for agriculture particularly in the developing world.

Climate change remained a contentious political topic around the world with the Republican party in the U.S. working within both the House of Representatives and the Senate to limit the ability of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to regulate carbon emissions from power plants and the like via the Clean Air Act. Debate also permeated Australian politics as Professor Ross Garnaut, a primary economic advisor to the Australian government, continued his 2011 updates to his initial 2008 Climate Change Review, with this month’s reports noting the increased scientific data supporting climate change theory and recommending a carbon pricing approach to address emissions targets.

The end of the month saw Arctic ice reaching its yearly maximum, an amount that tied with 2006 for the lowest in the satellite record according to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and Congressional testimony from Dr. Richard Muller of the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory as he presented early results from his Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project. Intended to be an independent assessment of global temperature trends over the industrial age, Dr. Muller was surprised to find that the early results from BEST, which included a 2% sampling of global temperature records, aligned closely with existing results from NASA, NOAA, and the UK Hadley Centre. Final results from the BEST project are expected in the coming months.

Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events, March 2011. Image Credit: NOAA

Quotable

Even the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard…Naval forces need to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future.

- Frank L. Bowman, ADM, USN (Ret.), Co-Chair, Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces

Highlights

• News
  • USDA invests $60M in climate change research on crops and forests
  • Satellite to study aerosol climate impact crashes in Pacific Ocean
  • Arctic ice yearly maximum ties with 2006 for lowest in satellite record
  • Michigan scientists: EPA should be allowed to regulate emissions
  • House committee votes to restrict EPA’s regulation of greenhouse gas emissions
  • Gallup poll finds fewer Americans concerned about climate change
  • Early results from Berkeley temperature study concur with NASA, NOAA
  • NOAA: Natural processes primarily responsible for 2010 Russian heat wave
  • NASA satellites detect extensive drought impact on Amazon forests
  • New Zealand targets 50% emissions reduction by 2050
  • Warming brings unwelcome change to Alaska villages
• Reports
  • NRC report for U.S. Navy details major challenges presented by climate change
  • Garnaut notes strengthened case for climate change, calls for carbon pricing
  • Joint Commission report details threats to Great Lakes water quality
  • UN examines relationship between changing climates and global urbanization
  • FAO warns of potentially catastrophic climate impacts on food production
• Research
  • Researchers: Antarctic icebergs may increase oceanic CO2 uptake
  • USGS: Climate change may eliminate Joshua trees from 90% of their range
  • Study finds more warming impact from contrails than aviation CO2
  • Study notes changing climate may expand range of dangerous recluse spider
  • Study: Climate change has greatest impact on those least responsible
  • Warming climate driving huge vegetation change in northern boreal forests

U.S. NRC Panel Discusses Limiting Future Climate Change

The principal conclusion of our report is that the country needs both a prompt and a sustained national commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

- Robert W. Fri, Chair of the Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

Extreme Weather Events Felt Around the World in 2010

While no single weather event can be definitively traced to global climate change, we would expect to see a greater number of extreme weather events accompanying climatic shifts. As more water vapor enters the atmosphere with rising global temperatures, large-scale precipitation events become more commonplace resulting in deluges in some locations accompanied by drought in others.

These extreme weather events have considerable effects on the impacted human populations with economic, political, and social ramifications. Displaced groups become climate refugees with associated sociopolitical implications, and impacts to infrastructure and food production are often felt well beyond local confines. The greatest damage from such events befalls those least able to adapt and rebound from them, the world’s poorest populations.

And last year saw multiple extreme weather events around the world.

UK Geological Society Releases New Statement on Climate Change

It is not possible to relate the Earth’s warming since 1970 to anything recognisable as having a geological cause (such as volcanic activity, continental displacement, or changes in the energy received from the sun).

- Geological Society of London, November 1, 2010

Noting that past large-scale climate shifts have often been accompanied by “extinctions and major redistribution of species”, the Society offered that “emitting further large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere over time is likely to be unwise.” An understatement if ever there was one.

Republican Candidates Question Climate Change Science

The Republican Party in the United States has now placed itself squarely in opposition to the conclusions of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and other scientific organizations around the world that climatic changes driven by human activities pose a serious environmental and societal threat.

Questioning the existence of anthropogenic climate change or its associated risks has now become a nearly universally embraced plank in the party platform in the upcoming state and national legislative and gubernatorial elections. The growing dismissal of climate change science by right-wing political candidates, elected officials, and media figures has even prompted a sternly worded editorial in the science journal Nature that found, “a growing anti-science streak on the American right that could have tangible societal and political impacts on many fronts.”

Below are a few recent public statements from GOP candidates in the upcoming election cycle.

Alaska

We haven’t heard there’s man-made global warming.
- Joe Miller, AK Republican Senate candidate

Arkansas

Well I think that we’ve got perhaps climate change going on. The question is what’s causing it. Is man causing it, or, you know, is this a cycle that happens throughout the years, throughout the ages? And you can look back at some of the previous times when there was no industrialization, you had these different ages, ice ages, and things warming and things. That’s really the question.
- John Boozman, AR Republican Senate candidate

Arizona

U.S. Senate

Global warming is based on unsound scientific methodology. Cap-and-trade legislation is a knee-jerk reaction to a problem that doesn’t exists [sic]…
- J.D. Hayworth

Man made global warming has not been satisfactorily debated or proven…Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is used by plants and increases growth, which increases Oxygen levels. If we work to reduce CO2, we could have less Oxygen.
- Jim Deakin

U.S. House of Representatives

Global warming is not a proven fact. It is conjecture and our seasons and weather are more cyclical.
- Jon Jensen, District 1

I do not accept “global warming” as an anthropogenic phenomenon. Climate change has occurred throughout the history of our planet, and there is no conclusive evidence to the contrary at this time.
- Steve Mehta, District 1

Global warming is an unproven theory. The TERM global warming is not used for we in fact our [sic] COOLING. Same Ill-logic [sic] was used in 1974 when the next Ice Age was coming. Consensus science is an oxymorron [sic]. We can not vote gravity out of existence.
- Thomas Zaleski, District 1

We should not punish the people of the United States financially by legislating on pseudo-science that has not been proven.
- Ruth McClung, District 7

California

I think we should have the courage to examine the science on an ongoing basis.
- Carly Fiorina, CA Republican Senate candidate

Colorado

While I think the earth is warming, I don’t think that man-made causes are the primary factor…I am one of those people that Al Gore refers to as a skeptic.
- Ken Buck, CO Republican Senate candidate

Connecticut

I think there’s evidence to the positive and to the contrary about global warming.
- Linda McMahon, CN Republican Senate candidate

Delaware

I believe cap and trade is one of the most destructive pieces of legislation in American history. That will push us much more toward socialism than ever before, if not be the final nail in the coffin that makes America a socialist society.
- Christine O’Donnell, DE Republican Senate candidate

Florida

I don’t think there’s the scientific evidence to justify [man-made global warming].
- Marc Rubio, FL Republican Senate candidate

No. I have not been convinced [about climate change].
- Rick Scott, FL GOP nominee for governor

Georgia

Science has shown us that there has been a gradual warming of the earth over the last 50 years. What is not as clear is whether the cause for this warming is man-made emissions, a cyclical warming of the planet, or a combination of both.
- Jonny Isakson, GA Republican Senate candidate

Hawaii

I oppose cap and trade (“tax”) legislation because of its false premise of global warming…
- Cam Cavasso, HI Republican Senate candidate

Idaho

While there is no dispute over the fact that the Earth’s climate has changed many times over the planet’s history, the underlying cause of these climactic shifts is ultimately not well-understood and is a matter of vigorous debate.
- Mike Crapo, ID Republican Senate candidate

Iowa

But there’s also an increasing number of scientists that have doubt about [greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change]. And so, not being a scientist, I don’t know exactly where to say only those things that are really quantifiable, and temperature has risen. But the scientific aspect that I’m still reserving judgment on is the extent to which it’s manmade or natural.
- Chuck Grassley, IA Republican Senate candidate

Kentucky

There is some question as to the validity of the science.
- Rand Paul, KY Republican Senate candidate

Louisiana

I do not think the science clearly supports the global warming theory.
- David Vitter, LA Republican Senate candidate

Maine

Exactly. Al Gore must be laughing himself into a frenzy here. Cause he’s making millions on it.
- Paul LePage, ME Republican candidate for governor responding to host referring to global warming as flawed and made up

Massachusetts

It’s interesting. I think the globe is always heating and cooling…It’s a natural way of ebb and flow. The thing that concerns me lately is some of the information I’ve heard about potential tampering with some of the information.
- Scott Brown, MA Republican Senate candidate

Missouri

There isn’t any real science to say we are altering the climate path of the earth.
- Roy Blunt, MO Republican Senate candidate

Nevada

[Carbon reduction legislation] is based on an unscientific hysteria over the man-caused global warming hoax.
- Sharron Angle, NV Republican Senate candidate

New Hampshire

I believe in climate change…Spring, summer, winter, fall.
- Dennis Lamare, NH Republican Senate candidate

New Mexico

There is disagreement in the science community concerning the causes of global warming.
- Susana Martinez, NM GOP nominee for governor

I don’t mean to be flippant about this, but only God knows where our climate is going.
- Jon Barela, NM GOP candidate for the 1st Congressional district

I think we ought to take a look at whatever the group is that measures all this, the IPCC, they don’t even believe the crap.
- Steve Pearce, NM GOP candidate for the 2nd Congressional district

The science is not settled regarding climate change, temperature records have been falsified, and the assumptions used in computer models have large degrees of error.
- Tom Mullins, NM GOP candidate for the 3rd Congressional district

New York

Those that have proposed global warming over the last few years have conducted an enormous charade.
- Gary Berntsen, NY Republican Senate candidate

I wish I could believe them. But I can’t believe anything that they say anymore and I’m convinced that much of what they were trying to do was a hoax.
- Jay Townsend, NY Republican Senate candidate

North Dakota

Well, the science shows that there’s warming. There’s different opinions of exactly what’s causing it.
- John Hoeven, ND Republican Senate candidate

Ohio

When you analyze all the data, there is a warming trend according to science…But the jury is out on the degree of how much is manmade.
- Rob Portman, OH Republican Senate candidate

Oklahoma

I am not the smartest man in the world…But I have been trained to read scientific documents, and [manmade climate change] is malarkey.
- Tom Coburn, OK Republican Senate candidate

Oregon

I think we just don’t know what all the causes [of global warming] are. There’s sunspots. There’s natural cycles. There are so many variables….And it’s not unanimous by any means. There’s certainly a fair number who object to the claim that there is a consensus.
- Jim Huffman, OR Republican Senate candidate

Pennsylvania

There is much debate in the scientific community as to the precise sources of global warming.
- Pat Toomey, PA Republican Senate candidate

I don’t believe in man-made global warming
- Tim Burns, PA GOP candidate for the 12th Congressional district

Rhode Island

There is really not a scientific consensus on human-caused global warming at this point….I think the scientific community needs to develop a better consensus.
- John Loughlin, RI GOP candidate for the 1st Congressional district

South Carolina

It’s going to keep snowing in DC until Al Gore cries ‘uncle.’
- Jim DeMint, SC Republican Senate candidate

Washington

I believe the Earth is warming. There is still debate in the scientific community about the level of human impact on climate change…
- Dino Rossi, WA Republican Senate candidate

I do not trust the basic data.
- Clint Didier, WA Republican Senate candidate

[Climate researchers] are not scientists. They are people with a political agenda…[Global warming is] part of the natural cycle.
- Paul Akers, WA Republican Senate candidate

West Virginia

And if you have one volcano in the world that one volcano puts out more carbon dioxide than everything that man puts out…I don’t think [global warming is] a farce, but I think temperatures go up and I think temperatures go down. But does man have anything to do with it?
- John Raese, WV Republican Senate candidate

Wisconsin

I absolutely do not believe in the science of man-caused climate change…It’s not proven by any stretch of the imagination.
- Ron Johnson, WI Republican Senate candidate

• Science Scorned – Nature

This is not about a belief. This is about evidence. This is about observations. This is about an accumulated body of knowledge that tells us something about the way the world is working. We are having a huge footprint on the planet.

- Dr. Pamela A. Matson
Chair, The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Dean, School of Earth Sciences, Stanford University

In May of this year, the National Research Council released three reports detailing “America’s Climate Choices”. Now, the “Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change” has released another video to accompany those reports.

Current Climate Running Against the Grain

When considering whether or not the human influence on the Earth’s climate is discernible, one of the immediate questions that comes to mind is, “What would the climate be doing in the absence of human interference?”

Indeed all climate models strive to identify the impact of natural mechanisms as compared to anthropogenic, or man-made, ones. The general conclusion has been that models of strictly natural influences do a pretty good job at reproducing real world, pre-industrial climate conditions but that the influence of mankind must be incorporated in order to reproduce the climate conditions of the industrial era. But at what point does the human component overwhelm its natural counterparts, when Mother Nature says we should be going in one direction while reality is going the opposite?

While it’s impossible to know exactly what the climate conditions would be in the absence of mankind, we should be able to get a pretty good sense of at least whether or not the global climate would be warming or cooling. The simplest method to make this determination is by examining the trends of a few major natural mechanisms that influence the climate, namely solar irradiance, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Solar Irradiance, ENSO, and PDO

Shifts in solar irradiance generally follow the Sun’s roughly 11-year sunspot cycle, but the magnitude of these cyclic changes is quite small. However, longer term, multi-decadal trends of rising or declining solar activity can have notable climatic impacts here on Earth. Longer periods of high solar activity or dormancy are often associated with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) respectively.

ENSO and PDO both refer to oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean, but they differ from one another. ENSO focuses on conditions near the equator. These conditions alternate between warmer (El Niño) and colder (La Niña) phases, with individual phases lasting from a few months to a year. Each phase can have a noticeable impact on global temperatures, with El Niño conditions driving temperatures higher and La Niña having the opposite effect. A particularly strong El Niño in 1998 is credited with pushing global temperatures to some of their highest levels on record.

Similar to its equatorial cousin, the northern Pacific PDO alternates between warm and cold phases with a warm PDO encouraging warmer temperatures and a cold PDO the opposite. While its phases are less predictable than ENSO they can last much longer, up to multiple decades.

Examining the Last 30 Years

So what has been going on with these three significant and natural climate drivers, particularly when compared to the warming influence of human industrial carbon dioxide (CO₂)? NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) states, “The average value of a meteorological element over 30 years is defined as a climatological normal,” so let’s examine the current 30-year history of each of these natural mechanisms and their respective influences on the global climate.

Figure 1 below depicts the 30-year trend from 1979 to the present of solar irradiance, ENSO, PDO, and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Each trend has been normalized in order to facilitate comparisons on equivalent scales. Each graph also includes the general warming or cooling influence of the trended data on Earth’s climate. Lastly, the normalized trend of global temperatures over the last 30 years is included.

Figure 1: 30-Year Climate Forcings – Solar Irradiance, ENSO, PDO, Atmospheric CO₂

Based on the combination of decreased solar activity, a steady ENSO and a declining PDO over the last 30 years, we would expect to be experiencing a cooling climate. However, despite this opposition from multiple natural factors, global temperatures have risen throughout this time period as the concentration of atmospheric CO₂ has escalated. Nature indicates the planet should be cooling. The reality has been just the opposite.

What Do Climate Models Say?

But do the climate models concur with this divergence?

Figure 2 is an excerpt from the IPCC’s 4th Assessment in 2007. Depicted is the output of three climate models. Each model was run reflecting just natural climate influences and also with the inclusion of anthropogenic influences. The different model runs are depicted in color with those reflecting natural+human factors shown in bold. Actual conditions based on direct measurements and proxies are reflected in the background gray range.

Click for larger version

Figure 2: Climate models, Figure 6.14, IPCC AR4 WG1

Examining the model outputs, as the world enters the industrial age, the models begin to show a split between the results from purely natural influences and those from natural+human factors. However, while the overall trends begin to diverge, the shorter term fluctuations remain in agreement. As the natural result warms, the natural+human result warms. As the natural result cools, the natural+human result cools.

Then things change.

Over the section of the model runs depicting the last 30 years or so, the two model run types diverge completely. While the natural results show a distinct cooling trend in line with the actual observations of solar irradiance, ENSO, and PDO, the results from the natural+human runs show a marked warming trend. This divergence is highlighted in the figure.

Looking at both the actual observations of historically significant climate forcings including solar irradiance, ENSO and PDO and the results from model runs depicting solely natural climate influences, we would expect our planet to be notably cooling.

However, examining climate models including both natural and human influences, we would expect a continued warming trend over the last 30 years.

Which is exactly what’s been happening.